The only thing we know for sure is this: we haven't tumbled into a Great Depression.
The one good guess about the future is this: the recovery will be long and slow.
The bright spot is this: maybe we'll learn something.
Those who say recovery is right around the corner are wrong. It took a decade or more of bad policies to set us up for this fall, and it will take many years to fix it. Over the last decade or two, we built an economy based upon consumer spending. That was a terrible idea.
Who among you believes that you will get richer if you simply spend more money? A consumption-based economy relies on convincing people to buy things they don't need with money they don't have. It relies on debt, personal and public. It relies on throwing more cash on the fire every time it looks like the economy might falter.
Economic recovery, if it is to be real and lasting, must be about our nation as a whole embracing a production-driven economic model. Our economy will remain fundamentally precarious as long as it is based on consumption instead of production.
There are glimmers of hope. In the media, the mantra that "consumer spending drives the U.S. economy," is heard less and less. That is good. Although that phrase was entirely accurate for years, it was rarely followed with the equally accurate addition, "That's the problem." There are still the occasional calls to "boost consumer confidence." This seems to imply that a speech or an advertisement can have long-lasting economic impact, by making Americans confident in the economy (whether or not they should be) so they will spend whatever money they have left (whether or not that's in their best interest).
I have faith that the confidence of the American people is not so cheaply won. Americans will be confident in the economy once that confidence is truly earned, by changing from a consumption-driven economy to a production-driven economy. Skill up our workers. Modernize our ports, rail, and highways to enable commerce. Lead in high-tech manufacturing, science, and innovation. Encourage business start-ups and help shops stay open. Teach the work ethic to the next generation.
The American economy will thrive because it is powerful and deep, not because it is "stimulated." That's the honest way to restore Americans' confidence in our economy, in our nation and in ourselves.
