The release Tuesday of county and state employment figures for January presented a mixed-bag for job seekers and wary business owners.
While the state economy added 12,400 jobs, ending a 14-month-long streak of negative employment growth, the state’s jobless rate remained virtually unchanged at 9.3 percent.
In Clark County, the figures released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics continued a familiar pattern, with 500 jobs shed and an unemployment rate rising .4 of a percent to 14.1 percent in January – the third highest in the state.
Scott Bailey, regional economist for Clark, Cowlitz and Wahkiakum counties in Washington, called the numbers “not good” and echoed fears that the current recovery was seriously lagging in terms of job creation.
“We can expect no pickup for a while – this won’t be a fun year,” Bailey said.
State economist David Wallace was cautiously optimistic; however, he predicted a “certain amount” of economic turbulence and an uneven recovery ahead.
Despite the grim outlook by economists, there was no denying that any job growth on the state level, no matter how small, was welcome news after more than two years of widespread layoffs. “It’s encouraging to see jobs finally coming back. I hope it signals the beginning of a job-full recovery, not a job-less recovery,” said state employment security commissioner Karen Lee.
According to Bailey, the numbers released Tuesday were taken from a sample of businesses that work best in a stable economy and factors such as new businesses, mass layoffs and general turbulence in the jobs market skew employment numbers.
For example, the term “seasonally adjusted,” which shows up in most jobs reports released by the U.S. government, is a basic template which adjusts employment statistics based on performance over the last three years. In theory, this process helps determine what seasonal economic conditions, such as weather, might result in an employment drop in certain industries like construction – however, in today’s volatile jobs climate, those factors don’t work as well, according to Bailey.
Dropping seasonal adjustments, Washington state’s unemployment jumps nearly a full point to 10.2 percent and Clark County job loss in January quadruples from 500 to 2,000, according to the numbers released Tuesday.
Adjustments made to employment statistics after initial figures are released is another factor to keep in mind, Bailey said. As an example, he pointed to December’s job numbers for the state, which were recently updated to reflect 18,000 more jobs lost than originally projected.
“That is not an insignificant number. Right now, [January’s] figures are simply an educated guess,” Bailey said.
Although Clark County is not the worst hit in the state – Ferry County in eastern Washington posted 16.2 percent unemployment in January – Bailey thinks the tough impact from the recession on the region banks mainly on two points: dependence on Oregon jobs and reliance on the hard-hit construction sector.
Though even with all of this employment data, the answer to the question of sustained regional job growth still rests in the eye of the beholder.
“This is great news for Washington state, and yet another sign that our economy is on the rebound,” said Gov. Chris Gregoire (D-Wash.) in a statement Tuesday.
Bailey says he doesn’t quite see it that way, saying that a general rule of thumb is three months of steady growth before a trend is established.
Gregoire continued her statement by championing her 10-point job creation plan. However, the state Legislature is largely consumed with budgetary issues, with Democrats proposing taxes that Republicans dismiss as job-killing and a $2.6 billion deficit waiting to be filled.
The real solutions to the problem of lingering unemployment, according to Bailey, include new banking regulations, stimulus to keep the economy going and new training programs for the long-term unemployed who may find their skill-sets obsolete.
“This is a national … actually, an international problem. So solutions won’t come from local government. They will come from Washington, D.C.” Bailey said.
