It's official: the sky is not falling on the U.S. economy.
At least, not yet, according to Alan Beaulieu, an economist invited to speak Monday at an event sponsored by the Columbia River Economic Development Council, RSV Construction, Inc., iQ Credit Union and other local businesses.
Armed with graphs, data tables and plenty of old-fashioned Yankee anecdotes, Beaulieu spoke in front of a packed house at the Hilton Vancouver Convention Center for more than 2 hours, detailing the precarious position of the U.S. economy in the aftermath of the credit crisis and the housing market meltdown.
The first half of the lecture was markedly grim. "You can't just blame government, you can't just blame business," Beaulieu said. "Business will get us out of this."
Along with his brother, Brian, Beaulieu heads the Boscawen, N.H.-based Institute for Trend Research, an economic consulting firm claiming a 96 percent accuracy rate in trend projections through the current economic downturn.
"Alan takes seemingly unrelated data and makes sense of it," said RSV Construction President Ron Fredericksen, who invited Beaulieu to speak at the event, called "Business Success in an Emerging Economy."
During the lecture, Beaulieu made clear his objection to the fiscal policy of former President George W. Bush and President Barack Obama, as well as Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke. "We are not going to see people get their jobs back," he said. "The policies of the last six months have dulled the economic potential of the U.S."
Despite what he called misguided attempts by government to stimulate the economy, Beaulieu predicted an imminent economic recovery, citing as evidence a rebounding stock market and a recent uptick in industrial production.
He also projected crude oil prices at $80-85 a barrel this time next year, along with a 3 percent rate of inflation – a subject at the crux of the most sobering portion of Beaulieu's presentation.
Citing the Federal Reserve's current fiscal policy of injecting liquidity into the economy in an attempt to unfreeze credit markets, Beaulieu predicted an astounding 7.5 percent inflation rate by mid-2012. "If you want to know what keeps me up at night, it's the dollar," he said.
Speaking for a crowd of Southwest Washington business owners and executives eager for any good news, Beaulieu wasn't all doom and gloom on the U.S. economy's prospects in the years ahead.
Calling reports of the death of U.S. manufacturing a "myth," Beaulieu presented statistics showing the U.S. a leader in total exports, workforce productivity and industrial production among world economies.
Beaulieu spoke of one immigrant's perspective on America as a lesson for those who believe their nation is headed toward inevitable economic and political decline: "They know what you do with your life here belongs to you. He said, ‘This is the greatest country on Earth.' And, you know what, he was right."
